With Winter Storm Fern bearing down on a vast swath of the United States, from Texas to New York, concerns about grid reliability are at an all-time high. To unpack the immense challenges facing the nation’s electric sector, we sat down with Christopher Hailstone, a veteran expert in energy management and electricity delivery. Our discussion navigates the unprecedented federal directive to activate emergency diesel generators, the difficult trade-offs between preventing blackouts and protecting public health, and the real-world effectiveness of reforms made since the devastating Winter Storm Uri. We also explore the growing strain data centers place on regional grids and the intricate coordination required to keep the power flowing during a crisis of this magnitude.
The Department of Energy is preparing to order 35 GW of backup diesel generators online, many of which are not typically connected to the grid. What are the primary logistical challenges in activating these units, and what precedent does this set for managing future energy emergencies?
The logistical hurdles are simply immense. We’re not talking about flipping a single switch at a large power plant. We’re talking about tens of gigawatts—35 GW, to be precise—spread across countless data centers and commercial buildings. Many of these diesel units were never intended for grid support; they exist to keep a specific building’s lights on. Coordinating them, many of which lack any remote utility interface, is a massive undertaking. The directive says contact can be made by a mere phone call, which gives you a sense of the ad-hoc, emergency nature of this plan. It sets a powerful precedent, essentially deputizing a vast, disconnected fleet of private assets as a last line of defense, blurring the lines of who is responsible for grid stability in a crisis.
Activating fleets of diesel generators at commercial sites can pose significant public health risks from pollution. How do grid operators and regulators weigh the immediate need to prevent blackouts against these long-term health and environmental consequences? Please provide a specific example of this trade-off.
It’s a brutal, real-time-triage situation. When you’re on the brink of an Energy Emergency Alert 3, the immediate, life-threatening danger of widespread blackouts in freezing temperatures takes precedence. People freezing in their homes, like the nearly 250 who died during Uri in Texas, is the catastrophe you’re trying to prevent at all costs. The decision to fire up these highly polluting diesel units is truly a last resort. The harm from the emissions is significant and unmentioned in the official order, but it’s a chronic, long-term risk being weighed against an acute, immediate threat to human life. It’s the grim calculus of emergency management: you accept the certainty of localized pollution to prevent the certainty of deaths from cold and infrastructure collapse.
Winter Storm Uri in 2021 prompted major reforms in the Texas utility sector. As Winter Storm Fern approaches, how effective have those changes been in practice? Could you detail a few key infrastructure or policy upgrades that have genuinely improved grid resilience?
The ghost of Uri looms large, and thankfully, it forced some real, tangible changes. While we can’t be complacent, the grid is in a better position today. We’re seeing a much more proactive and coordinated approach. For instance, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas is now in constant communication with the Public Utility Commission and state emergency management agencies, a level of collaboration that was sorely lacking before. On the ground, utilities like CenterPoint Energy in Houston have a massive force of 3,300 workers prepositioned and ready to go. These aren’t just paper policies; they represent a fundamental shift from a reactive to a proactive posture, ensuring that when the storm hits, the response is immediate and organized rather than chaotic.
The rapid growth of data centers is creating new vulnerabilities for regional power grids, especially during extreme weather. Can you elaborate on this dynamic? How are utilities and grid operators adapting their planning to manage the constant, high-level demand from these facilities?
It’s a perfect storm, pardon the pun. Data centers are insatiable, constant consumers of electricity, and they are proliferating in key markets like Texas. This creates a high, inflexible baseline of demand that wasn’t there a decade ago. When an extreme weather event like Fern hits, it dramatically squeezes already thin reserve margins. You have this massive, unyielding load from data centers on one side, and on the other, you have weather-related generator failures and skyrocketing residential heating demand. Financial analysts are right to flag this as a key risk. High-profile outages in these data center hubs would be a major blow, likely leading to a significant pushback from stakeholders who see demand growth far outpacing the grid’s ability to supply it reliably.
We see utilities from Texas to New Jersey activating emergency plans. Beyond prepositioning crews and supplies, what are the most critical steps for interstate coordination between grid operators during a storm of this scale? Please describe the process for sharing resources and managing power flows.
This is where the system truly shows its interconnectedness. No grid is an island. The most critical step is constant, open communication between the regional grid operators, like the New York Independent System Operator, and their neighbors. They are in a continuous dialogue, assessing the status of generating capacity and major transmission lines across the entire region. If one area is facing a severe generation shortfall, it can import power from a neighboring region that has a surplus. This process involves carefully managing power flows across high-voltage lines to prevent overloads. But it’s a delicate dance, especially in winter, as everyone is keeping a close eye on their own fuel supplies and generator availability, making sure that helping a neighbor doesn’t leave them vulnerable.
What is your forecast for the U.S. electric grid’s performance this winter?
My forecast is one of cautious strain. The industry is far more prepared than it was before Winter Storm Uri; the level of proactive planning and coordination is encouraging. Utilities are prepositioning crews, and grid operators are stress-testing their systems. However, the fundamental challenges are intensifying. The combination of more frequent extreme weather, the inflexible demand from new loads like data centers, and the ongoing transition to intermittent renewables creates a vulnerable situation. I expect we will see some localized outages and emergency actions, like the one being considered with the diesel generators. The grid will bend, and in some places it may break, but the reforms of the last few years should prevent the kind of catastrophic, widespread collapse we saw in 2021. It will be a major test of our resilience.
