I’m thrilled to sit down with Christopher Hailstone, a seasoned expert in energy management and renewable energy. With his deep knowledge of electricity delivery and grid reliability, Christopher provides unparalleled insights into the evolving U.S. energy landscape. Today, we’ll explore the remarkable growth of renewable energy, the dynamics of solar and wind power, and the interplay between federal policies and industry trends. From the nearly 26 GW of new generating capacity added this year to the forecast for renewables through 2028, this conversation promises to shed light on the future of energy in America.
How would you describe the significance of the nearly 26 GW of new generating capacity added in the U.S. from January to August 2025?
It’s a major milestone for the U.S. energy sector. Adding 26 GW in just eight months shows how fast we’re scaling up to meet growing electricity demand and transition to cleaner sources. This is a step up from the 23 GW added during the same period last year, which signals that investments and policies are gaining traction. It’s not just about the numbers, though—it reflects a broader shift in how we think about energy production and sustainability.
What types of energy sources are primarily driving this increase in capacity?
Solar power is the clear frontrunner, contributing about 19 GW—or roughly three-quarters—of the total additions this year. Wind energy plays a strong supporting role, and together, renewables are dominating the landscape. In August alone, solar accounted for 2.7 GW out of the 4 GW added. This mix shows a definitive pivot away from traditional fossil fuels toward cleaner, more sustainable options.
Solar seems to be experiencing explosive growth. What’s fueling this surge in solar projects?
A big part of it is the declining cost of solar technology—panels and storage systems are cheaper than ever. On top of that, federal and state incentives, like tax credits, make solar projects financially attractive for developers. There’s also a growing public and corporate demand for clean energy, pushing utilities to prioritize solar. It’s a perfect storm of economics, policy, and societal pressure driving this boom.
Can you highlight some standout solar projects that came online recently?
Absolutely. In August, we saw some impressive projects start operating. Hecate Energy’s Outpost solar and storage project in Webb County, Texas, added 517 MW, which is huge for both generation and grid stability with its storage component. Then there’s Gibson Solar’s 280-MW project in Gibson County, Indiana. These are just examples of how solar is scaling up across diverse regions, showing it’s not just a coastal or desert phenomenon anymore.
Wind energy is also making waves as a key player. How does its growth compare to solar’s trajectory?
Wind is definitely a major contributor, though it’s not matching solar’s pace right now. In August, wind added significant capacity, including expansions at the Roadrunner Crossing Wind Farm in Eastland County, Texas, totaling 254 MW. While solar often grabs headlines due to its sheer volume—19 GW this year—wind remains critical for diversifying our renewable mix. It’s especially impactful in regions with strong, consistent winds, like the Midwest and Texas.
What challenges does wind energy face compared to solar in terms of development and deployment?
Wind projects often deal with more logistical hurdles. Finding suitable land with the right wind conditions can be tricky, and you’ve got taller structures that sometimes face local opposition due to aesthetics or noise concerns. Transmission infrastructure is another issue—wind farms are often in remote areas, so connecting them to the grid can be costly. Solar, by comparison, is a bit more flexible in terms of where it can be installed, even on rooftops or smaller plots.
The data shows renewables account for nearly 84% of what’s called ‘high probability additions’ through 2028. Can you explain what that term means?
‘High probability additions’ refers to projects in the pipeline that have a strong likelihood of being completed, based on factors like funding, permits, and construction progress. FERC uses this to forecast capacity growth with a high degree of confidence. Of the 136 GW projected through August 2028, renewables dominating at 84% means solar and wind projects are not just ideas—they’re actionable plans with solid backing.
Why do you think renewables are expected to lead the charge over the next few years?
It comes down to economics and momentum. The cost of renewable tech keeps dropping, making solar and wind more competitive than ever against fossil fuels. Plus, there’s a strong push from utilities and corporations to meet carbon reduction goals. Even with some federal policies leaning toward fossil fuels, the market and state-level initiatives are heavily favoring renewables. It’s a trend that’s hard to reverse at this point.
Despite the focus on renewables, natural gas still added capacity in August. Can you tell us more about these projects?
Sure, about 888 MW of new natural gas capacity came online in August, which is much smaller compared to renewables but still notable. Key projects include Southern Indiana Gas & Electric’s 248-MW A.B. Brown expansion in Posey County, Indiana, Basin Electric Power Coop’s 245-MW Pioneer Generation Station expansion in Williams County, North Dakota, and the Lower Colorado River Authority’s 188-MW Maxwell Peaker Plant in Caldwell County, Texas. These are often designed to provide backup power or meet peak demand.
How do these smaller gas projects fit into the broader energy transition picture?
They’re more of a stopgap than a long-term strategy. Gas plants, especially peaker plants, help balance the grid when renewables like solar or wind aren’t generating—think cloudy days or calm nights. While they’re still fossil fuels, their smaller scale and specific role suggest they’re not competing directly with the massive renewable rollout. They’re more about reliability as we transition to a cleaner grid.
There’s a noted contrast between federal emphasis on fossil fuels and nuclear versus the growth of renewables. How do you make sense of this dynamic?
It’s a complex push-and-pull. On one hand, the current administration has prioritized fossil fuels and nuclear, sometimes slowing down renewable projects through regulatory delays or policy shifts. On the other hand, the economics of renewables are so compelling that developers and utilities are forging ahead anyway. State policies and private sector commitments to sustainability are also counterbalancing federal resistance, keeping renewable growth strong.
Looking ahead, what is your forecast for the balance between renewables and fossil fuels in the U.S. energy mix over the next decade?
I’m optimistic about renewables continuing to take the lead. With costs dropping and technology advancing, I expect solar and wind to keep outpacing fossil fuels in new capacity additions. Natural gas will likely stick around for grid stability, but its share will shrink as storage solutions like batteries improve. By 2035, I wouldn’t be surprised if renewables make up over half of our energy mix, assuming policy and investment trends hold. The real wildcard is how quickly we can upgrade the grid to handle all this new clean power.
