Christopher Hailstone, a veteran analyst who has transitioned his expertise in grid reliability to the complex infrastructure of the media industry, joins us to break down the latest data from the “post-Peak TV” era. As we navigate the evolving media climate, Hailstone provides a deep dive into why the predicted demise of linear television has been greatly exaggerated despite the rapid ascent of digital platforms.
This conversation explores the diverging fortunes of streaming and broadcasting, highlighting a 41% collapse in streaming orders while linear scripted content finds new life through franchise stability. We examine the death of the traditional pilot season and the rise of “straight-to-series” commissioning as networks tighten their belts and sharpen their focus to meet shifting audience demands.
The data suggests a massive 41% drop in new streaming orders, yet linear scripted content actually grew by 11% recently. How do you interpret this shift in the media landscape?
We are witnessing a significant recalibration after the frenzy of the “Peak TV” years, where streaming platforms arguably overextended their reach and budgets. The drop from 1,144 streaming orders in 2022 to just 678 by 2025 is a staggering 41% decline that reflects a cold, hard transition toward financial sustainability. Meanwhile, linear scripted orders saw a surprising 11% rise, moving from 236 in 2023 to 262 in 2025, which proves there is still a deep-seated hunger for scheduled, reliable programming. It feels as though the industry is finally exhaling after a period of frantic expansion, realizing that the traditional broadcast model offers a stability that the digital-first world is currently struggling to replicate. This isn’t just about survival; it’s about linear TV rediscovering its foundational role as the reliable backbone of the American household.
Free-to-air networks like NBC and CBS are seeing much smaller declines in series orders compared to thematic pay-TV channels. What is causing this discrepancy within the linear world?
The struggle for thematic pay-TV channels like the Food Network or HGTV is visceral because they are being squeezed by both ends of the market. While pay-TV subscribers have plummeted by 56% since 2016, free-to-air broadcasters like ABC, CBS, and NBC have shown much more grit, with series orders dropping only 13% compared to the 33% decline seen in Pay TV. It is a stark contrast between niche cable channels, which saw their orders fall from 1,295 to 877, and the big broadcasters who maintain a broader, more universal appeal. You can almost feel the tension in the boardrooms of those niche networks as they realize their specialized content is being cannibalized by low-cost streaming alternatives and social media clips. Free-to-air remains a titan because it doesn’t require a specific subscription barrier, keeping its audience pool much larger and more attractive to advertisers and commissioners alike.
The traditional seasonal development cycle seems to be fading away. What does this transition to “straight-to-series” and year-round ordering mean for the creative process?
The death of the traditional pilot season marks a profound shift toward what we call a “straight-to-series” commitment, which effectively eliminates the safety net of the pilot episode. Instead of the old-school Q4 script orders and Q1 pilot tests, networks are now operating year-round to be more responsive to what the audience wants in the moment. This year-round development is much more dynamic and reflects a disciplined primetime commissioning strategy that values speed and certainty over the long, expensive testing phases of the past. It creates a high-stakes environment where a show must be fully formed and polished from day one, but it also allows broadcasters to act with a level of agility that was previously only seen in the tech world. This evolution allows linear TV to prove its worth by being less rigid and more attuned to the shifting moods of the viewers.
Since 2024, over half of scripted orders have been franchise-based. What is the emotional or strategic drive behind leaning so heavily on established names like “The Simpsons”?
Leaning into franchises is a calculated move to capture a “known quantity” in an increasingly fragmented market where audiences are overwhelmed by choice. Since 2024, 52% of new scripted series orders have been built on existing franchises, which provides an emotional anchor for viewers looking for comfort. When you see renewals for stalwarts like “The Simpsons” or “American Dad,” you aren’t just seeing a business transaction; you are seeing a network lean on a beloved friend that the audience already trusts and loves. This disciplined approach minimizes the risk of a total flop because these titles come with established fanbases who will follow them across any platform or time slot. It is less about being risk-averse and more about being strategic with content spend, ensuring that every dollar invested has a higher probability of bringing back a loyal, consistent viewer.
Broadcast content seems to have a powerful second life on streaming platforms like Hulu and Peacock. How is this symbiosis redefining what success looks like?
There is a fascinating synergy happening where about 50% of both linear and non-linear viewers are seeking out the exact same genres, such as crime thrillers, dramas, and action-adventure. This overlap is why we see primetime series from NBC or ABC generating such massive engagement on platforms like Peacock, Paramount+, or Hulu after their initial airing. The broadcast network acts as the launchpad, creating a sense of “event” television that then flows naturally into the streaming library for on-demand consumption. This alignment means that broadcast TV isn’t just a separate island; it is the primary feeder system that keeps streaming platforms stocked with high-quality, high-engagement content. It reinforces the idea that broadcast TV is the foundational element of the entire media ecosystem, providing the initial spark that streaming then carries forward.
What is your forecast for broadcast TV?
I believe we will see broadcast television continue to solidify its role as the premier destination for big-tent entertainment and franchise-driven content. While the total number of linear orders fell 26% between 2022 and 2025, from 1,773 down to 1,304, the networks have successfully pruned the garden to let the strongest programs thrive. In the coming years, we will see an even tighter integration between the free-to-air broadcast and its sister streaming service, essentially blurring the lines until the platform matters less than the brand of the content itself. Linear TV is not fading away; it is evolving into a more efficient, disciplined, and responsive machine that serves as the essential starting point for the most successful stories in the world.
